Situation Overview
Abnormal rainfall patterns contributed to a spike in food insecurity in the region, which is currently affecting more than 28.5M people. This figure includes Angola (where the figures are yet to be confirmed), Madagascar (where 1,893,398 people are classified as food insecure, of which 459,319 people are severely so). These severe food insecurity conditions are likely to be exacerbated by the current El Niño which is predicted to continue and strengthen in 2015/2016.
Experts on food and nutrition security will soon release a new revised number of people likely to be affected by the El Niño in addition to the 28.5M people in the region who are already affected. The predicted drought conditions could also translate to crop and livestock disease outbreaks in endemic areas between November 2015 and May 2016, diminished pasture in rangeland and drinking water availability for animals, as well as a deterioration of livestock body conditions resulting in movement of livestock in search of relief grazing and forced destocking. Zimbabwe is for example currently battling an outbreak of foot and mouth disease, exacerbated by poor grazing conditions.
The RIASCO Food and Nutrition Security Working Group (FNSWG) indicate that the cereal harvest in the SADC region (excluding Madagascar, Mauritius and Seychelles) decreased by 21 per cent from 42.98 million tonnes in 2014 to 33.84 million tonnes in 2015. Although this is still three per cent above the past five year average production of 32.94 million tonnes, it is coupled by local currency depreciation, which contributes to abnormal price increases. South Africa (the largest maize supplier for the region) reported a 22 per cent maize production decline, a serious cause for concern as this may trigger higher food prices in the short term in deficit markets of surrounding countries. Zambia, the second largest maize exporter in the region, produced just enough to cover domestic requirements and marginally cover the demand from neighbouring countries. Prices are expected to increase atypically as the lean season approaches.